Dale Johnson, General Editor, ESPN FCJun 21, 2024, 11:13 PM
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The group stage at Euro 2024 is starting to take shape with the second round of matches well underway.
Who could book their progress in the second set of matches? Who has work to do? We run through all six groups and set out the permutations.
The top two teams in each group go through to the round of 16, along with the four best runners-up. The third-placed scenarios can be found at the bottom of the article.
This article will be updated after each group stage fixture.
QUALIFIED (2/16): Germany, Spain
ELIMINATED (1/8): Poland
TIEBREAKERS:
If teams are equal on points, they will be separated by the following criteria:
1. Head-to-head points
2. Head-to-head goal difference
3. Head-to-head goals scored
If three teams are level on points, a mini-league is created only involving the results of the matches between the teams in question.
4. If after applying stages 1-3 some teams are still level, it is reapplied just to those teams. For instance, England, Slovenia and Serbia are level on points; after applying 1-3, England are first but Slovenia and Serbia cannot be separated in the three-team mini-league. The direct head-to-head between Slovenia and Serbia would determine second place.
If teams still cannot be separated, the following are applied:
5. Group goal difference
6. Group goals scored
7. Penalty shootout, if the two teams are playing each other on the final matchday
8. If they don't play each other, lower disciplinary points (1 point yellow, 3 points red via two yellows, 3 points direct red, 4 points yellow followed by direct red)
9. European qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany are involved. If Germany are involved, then it would be a random drawing of lots.
Group A
Results:
Germany 5-1 Scotland
Hungary 1-3 Switzerland
Germany 2-0 Hungary
Scotland 1-1 Switzerland
Remaining fixtures:
June 23
Switzerland vs. Germany
Scotland vs. Hungary
GERMANY:
Win/draw
Germany are through and will top the group with a win/draw against Switzerland.
Loss
Germany finish second
SWITZERLAND:
Win
Switzerland would top the group with a win, dropping Germany into second.
Draw
A draw is enough to secure safe passage in second place.
Loss
If they lose, Switzerland will definitely be through if Scotland draw/lose. If Switzerland lose and Scotland win, second place would come down to goal difference (see Scotland section), though four points is highly likely to be enough to go through in third.
SCOTLAND:
Win
To finish in second, Scotland must win and Switzerland lose with a goal-difference swing of at least six. If a six-goal swing happens and goal difference finishes equal (e.g. 2-0, 0-4 to put both teams on 4-6) then lower disciplinary points would decide second, which Switzerland hold.
However, a win to put them on four points should be enough in third.
Draw
A draw for Scotland, to finish on two points, will not be enough for a best third-place spot.
Loss
Cannot qualify.
HUNGARY:
Win
Must beat Scotland to finish above them on three points in third and hope that's good enough. However, their goal difference stands at minus-4, so they would need a big win to have a realistic chance of continuing.
Draw/loss
Cannot qualify.
Group B
Results:
Spain 3-0 Croatia
Italy 2-1 Albania
Croatia 2-2 Albania
Spain 1-0 Italy
June 24
Albania vs. Spain
Croatia vs. Italy
SPAIN:
Have qualified as group winners as they hold the head to head over Italy.
ITALY:
Win/draw
Will finish in second place with a win/draw against Croatia.
Loss
Cannot finish in the top two with a defeat but if Italy lose and Albania draw/lose, Italy finish third and might go through with three points.
If Italy lose and Albania win, Italy finish bottom.
ALBANIA:
Win
Must beat Spain to have a chance.
If Albania win and Croatia win, the two teams will be level on points and second will be decided on goal difference (see Croatia section) -- though the nation who finishes third is highly likely to go through with four points.
If Albania win and Croatia draw, Albania finish third and should have enough to go through.
Draw
If they draw and finish third, two points won't be enough.
Loss
Cannot qualify.
CROATIA:
Win
Have to win against Italy to be in contention and will move up to second if Albania draw/lose.
If both Croatia and Albania win, Croatia will have to close a goal difference gap of two goals to finish second. If it finishes level (e.g. Albania win 1-0 and Croatia 3-0) it will come down to Fairplay points on which Croatia have a clear advantage (Croatia -1, Albania -5). If that's level it's European Qualifying Ranking (Albania 10th, Croatia 14th.)
Draw
If they draw and finish third, two points won't be enough.
Loss
Cannot qualify.
Group C
Results:
Slovenia 1-1 Denmark
Serbia 0-1 England
Slovenia 1-1 Serbia
Denmark 1-1 England
Remaining fixtures:
June 25
England vs. Slovenia
Denmark vs. Serbia
ENGLAND:
Win
England will top the group with a win against Slovenia.
Draw
England only require a draw to go through and will also be sure to progress if Denmark draw/lose.
They also can win the group with a draw if Denmark fail to beat Serbia. If England draw and Demark win it will come down to goal difference (see Denmark section.)
Loss
England can't win the group with a loss, but they would finish second if Denmark draw. If England lose and Denmark win, England will finish third and that's still likely to be enough to be through as one of the best third-place teams.
If England lose and Serbia win, England finish second on head-to-head record.
DENMARK:
Win
Must win to guarantee qualification.
If Denmark and Slovenia win, they take the top two spots with first place decided on goal difference with is identical at 2-2. The team with the biggest win, or highest-scoring win of the same margin, would finish top. If both win by the same scoreline to comes down to Fairplay (Denmark -4, Slovenia -4). If that's level it's European Qualifying Ranking (Denmark 9th, Slovenia 15th).
If Denmark and England win, Denmark finish second.
If Denmark win and England draw, top spot is decided on goal difference, and the Danes would take first if they win by 2+ goals. If Denmark win by one goal it would come down to goals scored, and if that's level Fairplay (England -1, Denmark -4). If that's level it's European Qualifying Ranking (England 5th, Denmark 9th).
Draw
Denmark will definitely finish second with a draw if Slovenia lose.
If Denmark and Slovenia draw, second would be decided on goals scored, so the team involved in the higher-scoring draw goes through. Ergo, Denmark 2-2 and Slovenia 1-1 sees Denmark finish second. If both draw by the same scoreline, second is decided on Fairplay points and European Qualifiers overall ranking as above.
If Denmark draw and Slovenia win, Denmark finish third and they must hope three points is enough as a best-third place team.
Lose
If Denmark lose, they can still finish third if Slovenia are beaten, but two points won't get you through.
SLOVENIA:
Win
Must beat England to guarantee qualification, which will be as group winners if Denmark draw/lose. If both Denmark and Slovenia win, the scenarios in the Denmark section apply.
Draw
Can only qualify in second with a draw if Denmark also draw, then the above scenarios over the scorelines apply.
Loss
Cannot finish in the top two with a defeat, and two points won't be enough for a best third-placed team.
SERBIA:
Win
Have to beat Denmark to have any chance and will finish second as long as England win/draw.
If Serbia win and England lose, Serbia will finish third on head to head but with four points that should see them through.
Draw/loss
Cannot qualify.
Group D
Results:
Poland 1-2 Netherlands
Austria 0-1 France
Poland 1-3 Austria
Netherlands 0-0 France
Remaining fixtures:
June 25
France vs. Poland
Netherlands vs. Austria
NETHERLANDS:
Win
Will top the group if France draw/lose. If France win too, first place comes down to goal difference. As both teams have +1 goal difference now, the team who wins by the biggest margin would finish first. If both teams win by exactly the same score, or Netherlands win by a bigger margin, Netherlands will be first on goals scored. If both teams win by the same score margin but France score one more goal -- for example, France win 2-1 and Netherlands 1-0 -- the teams would have identical records. First would then be decided on Fairplay (France -2, Netherlands -2). If that's still level it's European Qualifying Ranking (France 2nd, Netherlands 12th).
Draw
Guarantee to qualify. If France win, Netherlands finish second. If France lose, Netherlands win the group. If France draw, first will be decided on goal difference between Netherlands and France. If both games are drawn by the same scoreline, Netherlands win the group. If France draw and score one more goal -- e.g. 2-2 and 1-1 -- the teams would have identical records. First would then be decided on Fairplay (France -2, Netherlands -2). If that's still level it's European Qualifying Ranking (France 2nd, Netherlands 12th). If France draw and score two more goals -- e.g. 2-2 and 1-1 -- France win the group.
Loss
Can only finish in the top two if France lose too, then it comes down to goal difference. If both teams lose by the same margin, or if France lose by a bigger margin, Netherlands finish second. If both teams lose by the same score margin but France score one more goal -- for example, France lose 3-2 and Netherlands 2- -- the teams would have identical records. First would then be decided on Fairplay (France -2, Netherlands -2). If that's still level it's European Qualifying Ranking (France 2nd, Netherlands 12th). However, four points should be enough in third.
FRANCE:
Win
Will top the group if Netherlands draw/lose. If Netherlands win too, first place comes down to goal difference (see Netherlands section.)
Draw
Guarantee to qualify. If Netherlands win, France finish second. If Netherlands draw, first will be decided on goal difference between France and Netherlands (see Netherlands section.) If Netherlands lose, France finish second and Austria win the group.
Loss
Will definitely finish in the top two if Netherlands draw/win. If Netherlands lose, then it comes down to goal difference (see Netherlands section.) However, four points should be enough in third.
AUSTRIA:
Win
Guaranteed to qualify, and will win the group if France draw/lose. If France win, Austria finish second.
Draw
Cannot finish in the top two, but four points should be enough as a best third-placed team.
Loss
Would finish third and would have to see if three points is enough to go through.
Poland: Are the first team to be eliminated.
Group E
Results:
Romania 3-0 Ukraine
Belgium 0-1 Slovakia
Slovakia 1-2 Ukraine
Remaining fixtures:
June 22
Belgium vs. Romania
June 26
Ukraine vs. Belgium
Slovakia vs. Romania
Romania: Romania can seal qualification with a win over Belgium, .
Ukraine: Will definitely seal qualification with a win over Romania in the final game. Other permutations to follow after Saturday's match.
Slovakia: Will definitely seal qualification with a win over Belgium in the final game. Other permutations to follow after Saturday's match.
Belgium: Can't be ruled out of contention with a defeat against Romania. Other permutations to follow after Saturday's match.
Group F
Results:
Turkey 3-1 Georgia
Portugal 2-1 Czechia
Remaining fixtures:
June 22
Georgia vs. Czechia
Turkey vs. Portugal
June 26
Czechia vs. Turkey
Georgia vs. Portugal
Turkey: Turkey will be through with a win, which will be as group winners if Georgia win/draw in the first game.
Portugal: Portugal will qualify with a victory, which will be as group winners if Czechia win/draw against Georgia.
Czechia: Will be eliminated if they are beaten by Georgia and Turkey win/draw.
Georgia: Will be out if they lose to Czechia and Portugal then win/draw.
Ranking of best third-placed teams
The four best runners-up will go through to the round of 16.
This format has been in place for two previous editions, and both times four points secured progress. At Euro 2020, Ukraine sneaked through on three points. At Euro 2016, both Northern Ireland and eventual winners Portugal made it on three points.
It's still very early days to determine how many points will be required.
The third-place ranking is determined first by:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Wins
5. Lower disciplinary points
6. European qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany are involved. If Germany are involved, random draw.
While this is the current top six, the ranking can flip around very quickly by another team leaping into third place in a group, or dropping down into it.
