Watford's Andre Gray is effectively missing a penalty a game (2024)

Andre Gray is in the worst goalscoring form of his career, and it’s costing Watford dear not only on the pitch but also in the pocket.

The 29-year-old striker has only scored 15 league goals since joining in August 2017 for a then-club record fee of £18.5 million. His goalscoring return works out at a staggering £1.23 million per league goal. Almost an entire year (364 days) separates his last two goals for the club against Norwich (November 8, 2019) and Coventry (November 7, 2020).

There are reasons for Watford fans to feel disappointed with Gray’s behaviour off the pitch too. He committed more breaches of COVID-19 lockdown regulations (two) last year than he scored goals (one). He will only change opinions by scoring more often, so what has been going wrong and is there any light at the end of the tunnel?

This season Gray holds the unwanted record of possessing the highest Expected Goals (xG) deficit in the Championship (ie, the biggest gap between the number of goals a player would be expected to score on the basis of their chances, compared to the number they actually have scored). He hasn’t played a huge amount of football (516 minutes in the league, after missing the first two months of the season with a hamstring injury) but when he has, the quality of chances spurned have been significant. His solitary goal (bundled over the line against Coventry with an xG of 0.88) has come from an overall xG value of 5.21, giving him an xG shortfall of -4.21.

Even if you break that down to a per 90 minutes average, it doesn’t make any better reading. For strikers that have played over 500 minutes, Gray’s xG differential is -0.73 per match, which equates to missing a penalty per match in terms of the quality of his chances (spot kicks have an xG of 0.76).

Overall, his xG (non-penalties) per 90 minutes is 0.91, which is higher than most of the top scorers in the division, showing that he has been getting chances, but, unlike his peers, he hasn’t been able to put them away.

This shot map nicely illustrates Gray’s season so far.

The bigger the circle, the better the chance, with the green one signifying his solitary goal. It’s noticeable how many opportunities have come in and around the six-yard box. This suggests Gray is showing predatory instincts, but turning out to be toothless too often.

This shot map displays the outcome of his 16 shots. Seven of them drew saves from the goalkeeper.

Against Norwich, he had two chances which could have helped his metrics and confidence, that both failed to hit the target. First, a volley from the right side of the six-yard box that hit the side netting, and then (below) an opportunity that came courtesy of Troy Deeney’s poor connection, but was fired over the bar. Gray was alive in the box, but his finishing let him down.

His best goalscoring season in league football (he’d previously scored 30 goals for then non-League Luton Town in 2013-14) was in Burnley’s promotion season of 2015-16. His ratio of shots to goals then was in stark contrast to this season: Gray scored 23 goals for Burnley (best in the Championship) from only 40 shots on target. This season he is having slightly more shots on target per 90 minutes (1.22, versus 1.07 then) but his return is nowhere near the one in two of five seasons ago. Something is missing.

It appears to be a confidence issue, because Gray is still doing the right things in and around the box when he doesn’t have the ball. Although that goal against Coventry was untidy and he knew little about the final touch as his back was turned to the target, the movement (towards the near post to create space for him to then turn and run into) was clever (below).

Pundits often say out-of-form strikers “just need one to go in off his backside” and Gray achieved that here, but he couldn’t build on it. Ismaila Sarr played him in (below) but he wasted a one-on-one later in the half. Perhaps he had too much time on that occasion because in the past instinctive first-time finishes have served him well.

Hitting the ball into space in tight areas in front of Gray is where he wants the ball. It plays to his strengths and invariably leads to a better outcome.

Two examples from recent seasons — against Newcastle in the run to the 2018-19 FA Cup final and against West Ham in the Premier League early last season — involve Will Hughes threading passes into that kind of space for Gray to shoot first time. Both resulted in goals. Now Hughes is back from injury it will be interesting to see if it’s a link-up that reaps more rewards.

Playing Gray in a partnership can help (it was a 4-4-2 with Sam Vokes as Burnley got promoted), but successive Watford head coaches have opted to start him alongside Deeney sparingly (just 14 times in the league since Gray was signed in summer 2017). Either the head coaches are missing a trick or there have been more potent options (Gerard Deulofeu and Deeney in 2018-19 for example) or a different shape (4-2-3-1) has been a better use of the players available. If Deeney drops deeper, turns quickly and plays balls into gaps for Gray then great, but clever interplay with the all-important end result between the pair (as Deeney shared with Matej Vydra or Odion Ighalo in the past) has been less evident. Xisco Munoz will have to decide whether he wants to stick with it.

Gray’s explosive contribution — providing second-half assists for Deeney and Kiko Femenia — after replacing Deulofeu at half-time against Fulham at Vicarage Road in April 2019 showed how the two can work together, but they need to rediscover that understanding. That 2018-19 season proved to be Gray’s best with Watford in terms of goal involvement (seven goals and two assists) and was his only season with the club where he exceeded his xG.

If it is to be Gray on his own as a central striker — as it was against Manchester United in the FA Cup last weekend — short passes in behind can work, but he can also provide an alternative option in behind defenders from longer range. Especially earlier in the season during the deeper possession game preferred by Vladimir Ivic he would often ask for the ball over the top, but it wouldn’t come (as shown against Barnsley, below, when another short pass was opted for by Etienne Capoue).

Although unrequited requests have played their part in clipping Gray’s wings at times along with a fair portion of questionable finishing, if given another chance against Huddersfield Town on Saturday, he will feel his luck might be due to change.

In the reverse fixture four weeks ago, Ryan Schofield was named man of the match for a string of saves, including one where Gray had done everything right, found space from a Femenia cross, got his volley across the goalkeeper, but in the end it wasn’t his day.

Despite his struggles, Gray averages a goal every three games for Watford (93 league appearances, 43 starts, 0.33 goals per 90 minutes). He hasn’t ever gone a goalscoring run for the club though, something that is required now. The last time he scored in back to back matches was in September 2018 against Manchester United (in a 2-1 loss) and then Fulham (1-1); in January that year he did the same against Manchester City (a 3-1 defeat) and Southampton (2-2).

Many Watford fans have frayed patience after too many barren spells and seeing other promotion contenders with more prolific marksmen. It is time for Gray to prove them wrong. Until then, they’ll live in hope rather than expectation that he will catch light this season.